Everyone keeps asking us: “Is commercial real estate dead?”
Short answer? No. Long answer? It’s complicated but in a way that creates opportunities if you know where to look.
Turn on the news and you’ll hear about empty office towers, companies downsizing, and commercial real estate values “plummeting.” And sure, some of that’s happening. But here’s what the headlines miss: commercial real estate isn’t one thing. It’s dozens of different asset types, and they’re all behaving differently right now.
What’s Actually Happening:
Class A Downtown Offices: Yeah, these are struggling. Vacancy rates in some major cities hit 20-25%. Companies that used to need 50,000 square feet now need 30,000. Work-from-home isn’t going away completely.
Suburban Office Parks: Doing way better than you’d think. Turns out, when you can’t work from home every day but don’t want to commute downtown, suburban offices become the Goldilocks solution.
Industrial & Logistics: Absolutely crushing it. E-commerce needs warehouses. Last-mile distribution is booming. We can’t build these fast enough.
Retail (The Right Kind): Grocery-anchored shopping centers? Killing it. Experiential retail? Thriving. Dead malls in declining suburbs? Still dead. Location matters more than ever.
The Three Trends We’re Actually Betting On
1. The Rise of “15-Minute Cities”
People want everything—work, groceries, entertainment, healthcare—within a 15-minute walk or bike ride. This isn’t just urban planning theory; it’s reshaping where commercial real estate has value.
What We’re Doing: Investing in mixed-use developments in walkable neighborhoods. Ground-floor retail, offices above, residential nearby. The properties that serve these mini-ecosystems will print money for decades.
2. Industrial Real Estate Is the New Gold
Amazon didn’t kill retail—it just moved it to warehouses. Every online order needs to be stored somewhere, packed somewhere, and shipped from somewhere close to you.
The Numbers: Industrial vacancy rates are under 4% nationally. Rents are up 30% in the last three years. And supply isn’t keeping up with demand because nobody wants to wait two years for a warehouse to be built.
Our Play: We’re buying older industrial properties near major metros, upgrading them, and leasing to third-party logistics companies. Boring? Yes. Profitable? Extremely.
3. Amenity-Rich Office Isn’t Dead—It’s Evolving
Companies that want employees in the office need to give them a reason to come in. That means offices are becoming more like hospitality spaces—better design, more collaboration areas, actual amenities people want.
What Dies: Outdated office buildings with no parking, bad HVAC, and the charm of a Soviet apartment block.
What Thrives: Modern buildings with conference facilities, on-site food, gym access, and spaces designed for actual collaboration (not just rows of cubicles).
Where We’re Putting Our Money
NOT Buying:
- Class B/C offices in declining downtowns
- Retail in dead malls
- Anything that screams “2008 all over again”
Actively Buying:
- Industrial properties within 30 miles of major metros
- Suburban office buildings with parking and amenities
- Mixed-use properties in walkable neighborhoods
- Grocery-anchored retail centers
The Honest Reality Check
Is commercial real estate riskier than it was in 2019? Yes. Are there fewer “sure thing” investments? Absolutely. But that’s exactly when opportunities emerge for investors who do their homework.
The people panicking and selling at discounts? That’s who we’re buying from.
The markets everyone’s fleeing? That’s where we’re finding value.
The asset types everyone’s avoiding? That’s where the returns are.
What This Means For You
If you’re sitting on the sidelines waiting for the “perfect” time to invest in commercial real estate, you’re already missing deals. The perfect time is when you can buy good assets at reasonable prices with solid fundamentals.
That time is now—if you know where to look.
Want to talk about current opportunities? We’re always happy to walk through our pipeline and explain why we’re buying what we’re buying. No sales pitch, just honest conversation about where we see value.
Key Takeaways:
Crisis creates opportunity (if you’re not panicking)
Commercial real estate isn’t one market—it’s dozens, behaving differently
Industrial and suburban office are outperforming downtown Class A
Mixed-use properties in walkable neighborhoods are the long-term play
